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BENZİN FİYATI, REEL DÖVİZ KURU VE GIDA FİYATININ SEBZE VE MEYVE İHRACATI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ

Year 2023, Issue: 41, 182 - 198, 31.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1319197

Abstract

Bu araştırma, benzin fiyatları, döviz kurundaki güncel dalgalanmalar ve gıda fiyatlarının Türkiye'den sebze ve meyve ihracatı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL (NARDL) yaklaşımı uygulanarak, benzin, reel döviz kuru ve gıda fiyatlarındaki hareketlerin doğrusal olmadığı varsayımı altında, 2003:1'den 2019:12'ye kadar olan dönemde sebze ve meyve ihracatının belirleyicileri bulunmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışma, benzin, reel döviz kuru ve gıda fiyatlarının sebze ve meyve ihracatı üzerindeki asimetrik etkilerini belirlemeyi amaçlamıştır. NARDL modelinin sonuçları, benzin fiyatlarındaki uzun vadeli dalgalanmaların farklı büyüklükteki meyve ve sebzelerin ihracatını etkilediğini göstermektedir. Buna karşılık, sebze ihracatının reel döviz kuru açısından uzun vadede doğrusal etkilere maruz kaldığı kaydedilmiştir. Buna karşın, meyve ihracatının asimetrik etkilere maruz kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Mevcut yayın, gıda fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmaların sebze ihracatı üzerinde farklı etkileri olduğunu göstermektedir.

References

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THE EFFECTS OF GASOLINE PRICE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND FOOD PRICE ON VEGETABLE AND FRUIT EXPORT

Year 2023, Issue: 41, 182 - 198, 31.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1319197

Abstract

This study examines the effects of gasoline prices, fluctuations in the actual exchange rate, and food prices on the export of vegetables and fruits from Turkey. In this study, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach was utilized to examine the factors influencing the exports of vegetables and fruits from 2003:1 to 2019:12. The analysis was conducted with the assumption that the relationships between gasoline, actual exchange rates, and food prices are nonlinear. The objective of the study was to ascertain the asymmetric effects of gasoline, real exchange rate, and food prices on the exportation of vegetables and fruits. The findings of the NARDL model suggest that there is a significant relationship between long-term fluctuations in gasoline prices and the export of fruits and vegetables of different magnitudes. On the other hand, it has been observed that vegetable exports experience linear effects over an extended period in relation to the real exchange rate. On the other hand, it has been observed that fruit exports are susceptible to asymmetric effects. The present study suggests that fluctuations in food prices have diverse effects on vegetable exports.

References

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  • Abolagba, E.O., Onyekwere, N.C., Agbonkpolor, B.N. and Umar, H.Y. (2010). Determinants of Agricultural Exports. Journal of Human Ecology, 29(3), 181-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/09709274.2010.11906261
  • Adama, J. I. and Ohwofasa, B. O. (2015). Determinants of Agricultural Export Earnings in Nigeria, 1980-2011. Internatıonal Journal of Innovatıve Research & Development, 4(8), 318-326. http://eprints.lmu.edu.ng/2597/1/10.1.1.898.2716.pdf
  • Akbay, C., Candemir, S. ve Orhan, E. (2005). Türkiye’de Yaş Meyve ve Sebze Ürünleri Üretim ve Pazarlaması, KSÜ. Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi, 8(2), 96-107. http://traglor.cu.edu.tr /objects/objectFile/OLW19ceX-22122012-40.pdf
  • Anderson, K. (2010). Globalization's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960–2050. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365(1554), 3007-3021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0131
  • Arshad, F., Awad, A. and Hameed, A. (2009). The Long Run Relationship between Petroleum and Cereals Prices. Global Economy & Finance Journal, 2(2), 91-100. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.555.8085&rep=rep1&type=pdf
  • Ataseven, Y. ve Güneş, E. (2008). Türkiye'de Işlenmiş Organik Tarım Ürünleri Üretimi ve Ticaretindeki Gelişmeler. Uludağ Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(2),5-33. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ziraatuludag/issue/16752/174163
  • Atif, R. A., Haiyun, L. and Mahmood, H. (2017). Pakistan's Agricultural Exports, Determinants and Its Potential: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 26(3), 257-276, DOI: 10.1080/ 09638199.2016.1243724
  • Aye, G. C. and Odhiambo, N. M. (2021). Oil prices and Agricultural Growth in South Africa: A Threshold Analysis, Resources Policy, 73(102196), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. resourpol.2021.102196
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (2009). The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico. Southern Economic Journal, 75(4), 1019–1044. https://doi.org/10.1002/J.2325-8012.2009.TB00945.X
  • Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and Growth: Further Evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8
  • Bastianin, A., Galeotti, M. and Manera, M. (2014). Causality and Predictability in Distribution: The Ethanol–Food Price Relation Revisited. Energy Economics, 42, 152-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.12.014
  • Baumeister, C. and Kilian, L. (2014). Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?. Economic Policy, 29(80), 691-747. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0327.12039
  • Bayramoğlu, Z., Çelik, Y. ve Oğuz, C. (2009). Konya Ilinde Elma Üretiminin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelişme Olanakları. Tarım Bilimleri Araştırma Dergisi, (1), 11-15. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/tabad/issue/34770/384640
  • Bereket, I. (2020). The Determinate of Agricultural Export in Ethiopia: An Error Correction Model and Cointegration Approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 11(3), 51-57. DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-3-05
  • Bozma, G., Urak, F., Bilgic, A. and Florkowski, W. J. (2023). The Volatility of Beef and Lamb Prices in Türkiye: The Role of COVID–19, Livestock Imports, And Energy Prices. Plos One, 18(3), e0282611.
  • Braha, K., Qineti, A., Cupák, A. and Lazorčáková, E. (2017). Determinants of Albanian Agricultural Export: The Gravity Model Approach. AGRIS On-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 9(2), 3-21. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2017.090201.
  • Chen, S.T., Kuo, H.I. and Chen, C.C. (2010). Modeling the Relationship between the Oil Price and Global Food Prices. Applied Energy, 87, 2517–2525.
  • Chenery, H.B. and Strout, A.M. (1966). Foreign Assistance and Economic Development. The American Economic Review, 56 (4), 679-733. https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNABQ351.pdf
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There are 74 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Cyclical Fluctuations, Capital Market
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Gürkan Bozma 0000-0003-4047-9012

İlyas Kays İmamoğlu 0000-0002-7732-4148

Early Pub Date October 27, 2023
Publication Date October 31, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Issue: 41

Cite

APA Bozma, G., & İmamoğlu, İ. K. (2023). THE EFFECTS OF GASOLINE PRICE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND FOOD PRICE ON VEGETABLE AND FRUIT EXPORT. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(41), 182-198. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1319197

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