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AŞIRI GÜVEN VE ÖLÇME YÖNTEMLERİ: LİTERATÜR TARAMASI

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 1356 - 1381, 31.05.2023

Turgay Erdemir Sibel Somyürek

https://doi.org/10.24315/tred.1150081

Abstract

Aşırı güven bireylerin kendilerini olduklarından daha iyi görme yargısını ifade etmektedir. Aşırı güvenin, aşırı tahmin, abartılı konumlandırma, abartılı kesinlik gibi farklı boyutları vardır ve her bir boyuta ilişkin alternatif ölçme yöntemleri bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, farklı aşırı güven boyutlarının ne anlama geldiği, her birini ölçmek için nasıl veri toplanması gerektiği, bu veriler kullanılarak aşırı güvenin nasıl hesaplandığı ve her bir boyutla ilgili literatürdeki çalışmaların analizi yapılmaktadır. Böylece alanyazında ortaya konan aşırı güven ölçümünün neyi temsil ettiğinin bilinmemesi, ölçümlerin keyfi olarak belirlenmesi ve çalışmalardaki aşırı güven ölçümlerine yönelik metodolojik hatalar olması gibi problemlerin önüne geçilmesine katkı sağlamak hedeflenmektedir.

Keywords

aşırı güven aşırı tahmin abartılı konumlandırma abartılı kesinlik ölçme yöntemleri

References

  • Alicke, M. D. (1985). Global self-evaluation as determined by the desirability and controllability of trait adjectives. Journal of personality and social psychology, 49(6), 1621.
  • Ancarani, A., Di Mauro, C., & D’Urso, D. (2016). Measuring overconfidence in inventory management decisions. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 22(3), 171-180.
  • Anzalone, C. (2009). Overconfidence among teenage students can stunt crucial reading skills. University of Buffalo.
  • Bench, S. W., Lench, H. C., Liew, J., Miner, K., & Flores, S. A. (2015). Gender gaps in overestimation of math performance. Sex roles, 72(11), 536-546.
  • Bjorklund, D. F., Periss, V., & Causey, K. (2009). The benefits of youth. European Journal of Developmental Psychology, 6(1), 120-137.
  • Brañas-Garza, P., Mesa-Vázquez, E., & Rivera-Garrido, N. (2020). Gender differences in overplacement in familiar and unfamiliar tasks: Far more similarities.
  • Brown, J. D. (1986). Evaluations of self and others: Self-enhancement biases in social judgments. Social cognition, 4(4), 353-376.
  • Brown, J. D. (2012). Understanding the better than average effect: Motives (still) matter. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 38(2), 209-219.
  • Bol, L., & Hacker, D. J. (2012). Calibration research: Where do we go from here?. Frontiers in psychology, 3, 229.
  • Chaudhary, A. K. (2013). Impact of behavioral finance in investment decisions and strategies–a fresh approach. International journal of management research and business strategy, 2(2), 85-92.
  • Çevik, Y. D., Dogan, N., Daghan, G., Mumcu, F. K., Somyurek, S., & Karaman, H. (2019). Validation of pre-adolescent decision-making competence in Turkish students.
  • Destan, N., & Roebers, C. M. (2015). What are the metacognitive costs of young children’s overconfidence?. Metacognition and Learning, 10(3), 347-374.
  • Dunlosky, J., & Rawson, K. A. (2012). Overconfidence produces underachievement: Inaccurate self evaluations undermine students’ learning and retention. Learning and Instruction, 22(4), 271-280.
  • Duttle, K. (2016). Cognitive skills and confidence: interrelations with overestimation, overplacement and overprecision. Bulletin of Economic Research, 68(S1), 42-55.
  • Emich, K. J. (2014). But consider the alternative: The influence of positive affect on overconfidence. Cognition and Emotion, 28(8), 1382-1397.
  • Gervais, S., & Odean, T. (2001). Learning to be overconfident. The review of financial studies, 14(1), 1-27.
  • Gregersen, N. P. (1996). Young drivers' overestimation of their own skill—an experiment on the relation between training strategy and skill. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 28(2), 243-250.
  • Fellner, G., & Krügel, S. (2012). Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?. Journal of Economic Psychology, 33(1), 142-154.
  • Felson, R. B. (1984). The effect of self-appraisals of ability on academic performance. Journal of personality and social psychology, 47(5), 944.
  • Ford, D. J. (2018). The Effects of Metacognitive Training on Algebra Students' Calibration Accuracy, Achievement, and Mathematical Literacy. Old Dominion University.
  • Hacker, D. J., Bol, L., & Keener, M. C. (2008). Metacognition in education: A focus on calibration. Handbook of metamemory and memory, 429455.
  • Hamamura, T., Heine, S. J., & Takemoto, T. R. (2007). Why the better-than-average effect is a worse-than-average measure of self-enhancement: An investigation of conflicting findings from studies of East Asian self-evaluations. Motivation and Emotion, 31(4), 247-259.
  • Haran, U. (2011). Subjective Probability Interval Estimates: A Simple and Effective Way to Reduce Overprecision in Judgment (Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University).
  • Horgan, D. (1990). Students' Predictions of Test Grades: Calibration and Metacognition.
  • Kaesler, M., Welsh, M., & Semmler, C. (2016). Predicting overprecision in range estimation. Cognitive Science Society.
  • Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of personality and social psychology, 77(6), 1121.
  • Kurman, J. (2003). Why is self-enhancement low in certain collectivist cultures? An investigation of two competing explanations. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 34(5), 496-510.
  • Larrick, R. P., Burson, K. A., & Soll, J. B. (2007). Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 102(1), 76-94.
  • Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L. D. (1977). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art. Decision making and change in human affairs, 275-324.
  • Logg, J. M., Haran, U., & Moore, D. A. (2018). Is overconfidence a motivated bias? Experimental evidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 147(10), 1445.
  • Mannes, A. E., & Moore, D. A. (2013). A behavioral demonstration of overconfidence in judgment. Psychological science, 24(7), 1190-1197.
  • Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975). Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?. Psychological bulletin, 82(2), 213.
  • Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological review, 115(2), 502.
  • Moore, D. A., & Schatz, D. (2020). Overprecision increases subsequent surprise. Plos one, 15(7), e0227084.
  • Moore, D. A., Carter, A. B., & Yang, H. H. (2015). Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 131, 110-120.
  • Moore, D. A. (2007). When good= better than average. Judgment and Decision Making, 2(5), 277.
  • Moore, D. A., Dev, A. S., Goncharova, E. Y., Vazire, S., & Tullett, A. (2018). Overconfidence across cultures. Collabra: Psychology, 4(1). Myers, D. G. (1998). Social psychology (5th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
  • Njoku, H. U. (2007). The interrelations of goals, knowledge monitoring, strategic help seeking, and achievement among high school students of different cultures (Doctoral dissertation, Fordham University).
  • Isaacson, R., & Fujita, F. (2006). Metacognitive knowledge monitoring and self-regulated learning. Journal of the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning, 39-55.
  • Ilieva, V., Brudermann, T., & Drakulevski, L. (2018). “Yes, we know!”(Over) confidence in general knowledge among Austrian entrepreneurs. Plos one, 13(5), e0197085.
  • Olsson, H. (2014). Measuring overconfidence: Methodological problems and statistical artifacts. Journal of Business Research, 67(8), 1766-1770.
  • Osborne, J., & Dillon, J. (2008). Science education in Europe: Critical reflections (Vol. 13). London: The Nuffield Foundation.
  • Plumert, J. M. (1995). Relations between children's overestimation of their physical abilities and accident proneness. Developmental Psychology, 31(5), 866.
  • Pompian, M. M., & Wood, A. S. (2006). Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios for Private Clients. New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Retrieved from http://library. perbanas. ac. id/images/book/behavioralfinance. pdf.
  • Prims, J. P., & Moore, D. A. (2017). Overconfidence over the lifespan. Judgment and decision making, 12(1), 29.
  • Rachmatullah, A., & Ha, M. (2019). Examining high-school students’ overconfidence bias in biology exam: a focus on the effects of country and gender. International Journal of Science Education, 41(5), 652-673.
  • Schanbacher, P. (2014). Measuring and adjusting for overconfidence. Decisions in Economics and Finance, 37(2), 423-452.
  • Shefrin, H. (2002). Beyond greed and fear: Understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing. Oxford University Press on Demand.
  • Shin, H., Bjorklund, D. F., & Beck, E. F. (2007). The adaptive nature of children's overestimation in a strategic memory task. Cognitive Development, 22(2), 197-212.
  • Simons, D. J. (2013). Unskilled and optimistic: Overconfident predictions despite calibrated knowledge of relative skill. Psychonomic bulletin & review, 20(3), 601-607.
  • Somyürek, S. & Brusilovsky, P. (2015). Impact of Open Social Student Modeling on Self-Assessment of Performance. Proceedings of World Conference on E-Learning in Corporate, Government, Healthcare, and Higher Education 2009 (E-Learn 2015). Kona, Hawaii, ABD, 19-22 Ekim, 2015.
  • Somyürek, S., & Çelik, İ. (2018). Dunning-Kruger sendromu ve öznel değerlendirmeler. Eğitim Teknolojisi Kuram ve Uygulama, 8(1), 141-157.
  • Somyürek, S., Brusilovsky, P., & Guerra, J. (2020). Supporting knowledge monitoring ability: open learner modeling vs. open social learner modeling. Research and Practice in Technology Enhanced Learning, 15(1), 1-24.
  • Spiwoks, M., & Bizer, K. (2018). On the Measurement of Overconfidence: An Experimental Study. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 4(1), 30-37.
  • Sternberg, R. J., & Kolligian Jr, J. E. (1990). Competence considered. Yale University Press.
  • Tekin, B. (2019). Kendine Aşırı Güven ve Ölçme Yöntemleri: Davranışsal Finans Kapsamında Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 293-308.
  • Tobias, S., & Everson, H. T. (2002). Knowing What You Know and What You Don't: Further Research on Metacognitive Knowledge Monitoring. Research Report No. 2002-3. College Entrance Examination Board.
  • Van Loon, M. H., de Bruin, A. B., van Gog, T., & van Merriënboer, J. J. (2013). Activation of inaccurate prior knowledge affects primary-school students’ metacognitive judgments and calibration. Learning and Instruction, 24, 15-25.
  • Weller, J. A., Moholy, M., Bossard, E., & Levin, I. P. (2015). Preadolescent decision‐making competence predicts interpersonal strengths and difficulties: A 2‐year prospective study. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 28(1), 76-88.
  • Weiner, B. (1979). A theory of motivation for some classroom experiences. Journal of educational psychology, 71(1), 3.
  • Zell, E., & Alicke, M. D. (2011). Age and the better‐than‐average effect. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 41(5), 1175-1188.

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 1356 - 1381, 31.05.2023

Turgay Erdemir Sibel Somyürek

https://doi.org/10.24315/tred.1150081

Abstract

References

  • Alicke, M. D. (1985). Global self-evaluation as determined by the desirability and controllability of trait adjectives. Journal of personality and social psychology, 49(6), 1621.
  • Ancarani, A., Di Mauro, C., & D’Urso, D. (2016). Measuring overconfidence in inventory management decisions. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 22(3), 171-180.
  • Anzalone, C. (2009). Overconfidence among teenage students can stunt crucial reading skills. University of Buffalo.
  • Bench, S. W., Lench, H. C., Liew, J., Miner, K., & Flores, S. A. (2015). Gender gaps in overestimation of math performance. Sex roles, 72(11), 536-546.
  • Bjorklund, D. F., Periss, V., & Causey, K. (2009). The benefits of youth. European Journal of Developmental Psychology, 6(1), 120-137.
  • Brañas-Garza, P., Mesa-Vázquez, E., & Rivera-Garrido, N. (2020). Gender differences in overplacement in familiar and unfamiliar tasks: Far more similarities.
  • Brown, J. D. (1986). Evaluations of self and others: Self-enhancement biases in social judgments. Social cognition, 4(4), 353-376.
  • Brown, J. D. (2012). Understanding the better than average effect: Motives (still) matter. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 38(2), 209-219.
  • Bol, L., & Hacker, D. J. (2012). Calibration research: Where do we go from here?. Frontiers in psychology, 3, 229.
  • Chaudhary, A. K. (2013). Impact of behavioral finance in investment decisions and strategies–a fresh approach. International journal of management research and business strategy, 2(2), 85-92.
  • Çevik, Y. D., Dogan, N., Daghan, G., Mumcu, F. K., Somyurek, S., & Karaman, H. (2019). Validation of pre-adolescent decision-making competence in Turkish students.
  • Destan, N., & Roebers, C. M. (2015). What are the metacognitive costs of young children’s overconfidence?. Metacognition and Learning, 10(3), 347-374.
  • Dunlosky, J., & Rawson, K. A. (2012). Overconfidence produces underachievement: Inaccurate self evaluations undermine students’ learning and retention. Learning and Instruction, 22(4), 271-280.
  • Duttle, K. (2016). Cognitive skills and confidence: interrelations with overestimation, overplacement and overprecision. Bulletin of Economic Research, 68(S1), 42-55.
  • Emich, K. J. (2014). But consider the alternative: The influence of positive affect on overconfidence. Cognition and Emotion, 28(8), 1382-1397.
  • Gervais, S., & Odean, T. (2001). Learning to be overconfident. The review of financial studies, 14(1), 1-27.
  • Gregersen, N. P. (1996). Young drivers' overestimation of their own skill—an experiment on the relation between training strategy and skill. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 28(2), 243-250.
  • Fellner, G., & Krügel, S. (2012). Judgmental overconfidence: Three measures, one bias?. Journal of Economic Psychology, 33(1), 142-154.
  • Felson, R. B. (1984). The effect of self-appraisals of ability on academic performance. Journal of personality and social psychology, 47(5), 944.
  • Ford, D. J. (2018). The Effects of Metacognitive Training on Algebra Students' Calibration Accuracy, Achievement, and Mathematical Literacy. Old Dominion University.
  • Hacker, D. J., Bol, L., & Keener, M. C. (2008). Metacognition in education: A focus on calibration. Handbook of metamemory and memory, 429455.
  • Hamamura, T., Heine, S. J., & Takemoto, T. R. (2007). Why the better-than-average effect is a worse-than-average measure of self-enhancement: An investigation of conflicting findings from studies of East Asian self-evaluations. Motivation and Emotion, 31(4), 247-259.
  • Haran, U. (2011). Subjective Probability Interval Estimates: A Simple and Effective Way to Reduce Overprecision in Judgment (Doctoral dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University).
  • Horgan, D. (1990). Students' Predictions of Test Grades: Calibration and Metacognition.
  • Kaesler, M., Welsh, M., & Semmler, C. (2016). Predicting overprecision in range estimation. Cognitive Science Society.
  • Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of personality and social psychology, 77(6), 1121.
  • Kurman, J. (2003). Why is self-enhancement low in certain collectivist cultures? An investigation of two competing explanations. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 34(5), 496-510.
  • Larrick, R. P., Burson, K. A., & Soll, J. B. (2007). Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you’re better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not). Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 102(1), 76-94.
  • Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L. D. (1977). Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art. Decision making and change in human affairs, 275-324.
  • Logg, J. M., Haran, U., & Moore, D. A. (2018). Is overconfidence a motivated bias? Experimental evidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 147(10), 1445.
  • Mannes, A. E., & Moore, D. A. (2013). A behavioral demonstration of overconfidence in judgment. Psychological science, 24(7), 1190-1197.
  • Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975). Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?. Psychological bulletin, 82(2), 213.
  • Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological review, 115(2), 502.
  • Moore, D. A., & Schatz, D. (2020). Overprecision increases subsequent surprise. Plos one, 15(7), e0227084.
  • Moore, D. A., Carter, A. B., & Yang, H. H. (2015). Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 131, 110-120.
  • Moore, D. A. (2007). When good= better than average. Judgment and Decision Making, 2(5), 277.
  • Moore, D. A., Dev, A. S., Goncharova, E. Y., Vazire, S., & Tullett, A. (2018). Overconfidence across cultures. Collabra: Psychology, 4(1). Myers, D. G. (1998). Social psychology (5th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
  • Njoku, H. U. (2007). The interrelations of goals, knowledge monitoring, strategic help seeking, and achievement among high school students of different cultures (Doctoral dissertation, Fordham University).
  • Isaacson, R., & Fujita, F. (2006). Metacognitive knowledge monitoring and self-regulated learning. Journal of the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning, 39-55.
  • Ilieva, V., Brudermann, T., & Drakulevski, L. (2018). “Yes, we know!”(Over) confidence in general knowledge among Austrian entrepreneurs. Plos one, 13(5), e0197085.
  • Olsson, H. (2014). Measuring overconfidence: Methodological problems and statistical artifacts. Journal of Business Research, 67(8), 1766-1770.
  • Osborne, J., & Dillon, J. (2008). Science education in Europe: Critical reflections (Vol. 13). London: The Nuffield Foundation.
  • Plumert, J. M. (1995). Relations between children's overestimation of their physical abilities and accident proneness. Developmental Psychology, 31(5), 866.
  • Pompian, M. M., & Wood, A. S. (2006). Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios for Private Clients. New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Retrieved from http://library. perbanas. ac. id/images/book/behavioralfinance. pdf.
  • Prims, J. P., & Moore, D. A. (2017). Overconfidence over the lifespan. Judgment and decision making, 12(1), 29.
  • Rachmatullah, A., & Ha, M. (2019). Examining high-school students’ overconfidence bias in biology exam: a focus on the effects of country and gender. International Journal of Science Education, 41(5), 652-673.
  • Schanbacher, P. (2014). Measuring and adjusting for overconfidence. Decisions in Economics and Finance, 37(2), 423-452.
  • Shefrin, H. (2002). Beyond greed and fear: Understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing. Oxford University Press on Demand.
  • Shin, H., Bjorklund, D. F., & Beck, E. F. (2007). The adaptive nature of children's overestimation in a strategic memory task. Cognitive Development, 22(2), 197-212.
  • Simons, D. J. (2013). Unskilled and optimistic: Overconfident predictions despite calibrated knowledge of relative skill. Psychonomic bulletin & review, 20(3), 601-607.
  • Somyürek, S. & Brusilovsky, P. (2015). Impact of Open Social Student Modeling on Self-Assessment of Performance. Proceedings of World Conference on E-Learning in Corporate, Government, Healthcare, and Higher Education 2009 (E-Learn 2015). Kona, Hawaii, ABD, 19-22 Ekim, 2015.
  • Somyürek, S., & Çelik, İ. (2018). Dunning-Kruger sendromu ve öznel değerlendirmeler. Eğitim Teknolojisi Kuram ve Uygulama, 8(1), 141-157.
  • Somyürek, S., Brusilovsky, P., & Guerra, J. (2020). Supporting knowledge monitoring ability: open learner modeling vs. open social learner modeling. Research and Practice in Technology Enhanced Learning, 15(1), 1-24.
  • Spiwoks, M., & Bizer, K. (2018). On the Measurement of Overconfidence: An Experimental Study. International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 4(1), 30-37.
  • Sternberg, R. J., & Kolligian Jr, J. E. (1990). Competence considered. Yale University Press.
  • Tekin, B. (2019). Kendine Aşırı Güven ve Ölçme Yöntemleri: Davranışsal Finans Kapsamında Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 293-308.
  • Tobias, S., & Everson, H. T. (2002). Knowing What You Know and What You Don't: Further Research on Metacognitive Knowledge Monitoring. Research Report No. 2002-3. College Entrance Examination Board.
  • Van Loon, M. H., de Bruin, A. B., van Gog, T., & van Merriënboer, J. J. (2013). Activation of inaccurate prior knowledge affects primary-school students’ metacognitive judgments and calibration. Learning and Instruction, 24, 15-25.
  • Weller, J. A., Moholy, M., Bossard, E., & Levin, I. P. (2015). Preadolescent decision‐making competence predicts interpersonal strengths and difficulties: A 2‐year prospective study. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 28(1), 76-88.
  • Weiner, B. (1979). A theory of motivation for some classroom experiences. Journal of educational psychology, 71(1), 3.
  • Zell, E., & Alicke, M. D. (2011). Age and the better‐than‐average effect. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 41(5), 1175-1188.
There are 61 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Studies on Education
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Turgay Erdemir 0000-0003-1407-9648

Sibel Somyürek 0000-0001-7803-1438

Early Pub Date May 26, 2023
Publication Date May 31, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 13 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Erdemir, T., & Somyürek, S. (2023). AŞIRI GÜVEN VE ÖLÇME YÖNTEMLERİ: LİTERATÜR TARAMASI. Trakya Eğitim Dergisi, 13(2), 1356-1381. https://doi.org/10.24315/tred.1150081
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