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KOVID-19, FİNANSAL RİSK VE HAVAYOLU SEKTÖRÜ

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 3, 1557 - 1581, 30.11.2021

Kasım Kiracı

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.911548
Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, finansal sıkıntı olasılığının olduğu kriz dönemlerinde, havayollarının iflas riskini artıran veya azaltan finansal değişkenlerin araştırılmasıdır. Bu çalışmada, havayollarında finansal sıkıntıyı veya iflas olasılığını etkileyen finansal değişkenler incelenmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında 35 havayolunun finansal verileri incelenmiştir. Altman (1968) Z-skor, Springate (1978) S-skor ve Zmijewski (1984) J-skor finansal sıkıntı tahmin modellerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bulgular, kriz zamanlarında diğer bir ifadeyle finansal sıkıntı ve iflas olasılığının arttığı durumlarda (Covid-19 gibi), kaldıraç seviyesi, varlık yapısı, firma büyüklüğü, firma karlılığı ve likidite oranının havayolu finansal sıkıntı veya iflas olasılığını önemli ölçüde etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Finansal Risk Havayolu Sektörü Finansal Sıkıntı Tahmin Modelleri

References

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  • Agustia, D., Muhammad, N. P. A., & Permatasari, Y. (2020). Earnings management, business strategy, and bankruptcy risk: evidence from Indonesia. Heliyon. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03317
  • Alanis, E., & Quijano, M. (2019). Investment-cash flow sensitivity and the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1978. North American Journal of Economics and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.08.004
  • Albers, S., & Rundshagen, V. (2020). European airlines′ strategic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (January-May, 2020). Journal of Air Transport Management, 87, 101863. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101863
  • Altman, E. I., Haldeman, R. G., & Narayanan, P. (1977). ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations. Journal of Banking and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(77)90017-6
  • Altman, I. (1968). Altman Z-Score. FCS Commercial Finance Group.
  • Arellano, M. (1987). Computing robust standard errors for within-groups estimators. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(4), 431–434.
  • Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490171
  • Berghöfer, B., & Lucey, B. (2014). Fuel hedging, operational hedging and risk exposure - Evidence from the global airline industry. International Review of Financial Analysis, 34, 124–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2014.02.007
  • Bock, S., Mantin, B., Niemeier, H. M., & Forsyth, P. J. (2020). Bankruptcy in international vs domestic markets: Evidence from the airline industry. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 132(January), 728–743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.12.007
  • Budd, L., Ison, S., & Adrienne, N. (2020). European airline response to the COVID-19 pandemic – Contraction, consolidation and future considerations for airline business and management. Research in Transportation Business and Management, 37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2020.100578
  • Charalambakis, Evangelos C; Espenlaub, Susanne K; Garrett, I. (2008). On the Impact of Financial Distress on Capital Structure: The Role of Leverage Dynamics. He University of Manchester, Working Paper, 2, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.03.012
  • Chee-Wooi, Hooy, & Chyn-Hwa, L. (2010). The Determinants of Systematic Risk Exposures of Airline Industry in East Asia. World Applied Sciences Journal 10 (Special Issue of Tourism & Hospitality), 10, 91–98. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03192151
  • Cheng, F., Chiao, C., Fang, Z., Wang, C., & Yao, S. (2019). Raising short-term debt for long-term investment and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.05.018
  • Della Seta, M., Morellec, E., & Zucchi, F. (2020). Short-term debt and incentives for risk-taking. Journal of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.07.008
  • Donangelo, A., Gourio, F., Kehrig, M., & Palacios, M. (2019). The cross-section of labor leverage and equity returns. Journal of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.10.016
  • Drakos, K. (2004). Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: Airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 435–446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2003.12.010
  • Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–559. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
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  • Goto, M., & Suzuki, T. (2015). Optimal default and liquidation with tangible assets and debt renegotiation. Review of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2015.07.001
  • Grice, J. S., & Dugan, M. T. (2003). RE-ESTIMATIONS OF THE ZMIJEWSKI AND OHLSON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS. In Advances in Accounting. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0882-6110(03)20004-3
  • Güriş, S. (2015). Stata ile panel veri modelleri. Der yayınevi.
  • Guzhva, V. S., & Pagiavlas, N. (2004). US Commercial airline performance after September 11, 2001: Decomposing the effect of the terrorist attack from macroeconomic influences. Journal of Air Transport Management, 10(5), 327–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2004.05.002
  • Hätty, H., & Hollmeier, S. (2003). Airline strategy in the 2001/2002 crisis — The Lufthansa example. Journal of Air Transport Management, 9(1), 51–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6997(02)00064-9
  • Hayes, S. K., Hodge, K. A., & Hughes, L. W. (2010). A Study of the Efficacy of Altman’s Z To Predict Bankruptcy of Specialty Retail Firms Doing Business in Contemporary Times. Economics & Business Journal.
  • He, Z., & Xiong, W. (2012). Rollover Risk and Credit Risk. Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01721.x
  • Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of panel data: Third edition. In Analysis of Panel Data: Third Edition. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139839327
  • Husein, M. F., & Pambekti, G. T. (2015). Precision of the models of Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover for predicting the financial distress. Journal of Economics, Business & Accountancy Ventura, 17(3), 405. https://doi.org/10.14414/jebav.v17i3.362
  • ICAO. (2020). Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID‐19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis. https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/COVID-19/ICAO_Coronavirus_Econ_Impact.pdf
  • Javadi, S., & Mollagholamali, M. (2018). Debt market illiquidity and correlated default risk. Finance Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.02.002
  • Kiraci, K., & Aydin, N. (2018). Factors that determine the capital structure: An empirical study on low-cost airlines. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 65(3). https://doi.org/10.2478/saeb-2018-0018
  • Kiraci, Kasım. (2019). Determinants of financial risk: An empirical application on low-cost carriers. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 66(3), 335–349. https://doi.org/10.2478/saeb-2019-0025
  • Lee, J. S., & Jang, S. C. (Shawn). (2007). The systematic-risk determinants of the US airline industry. Tourism Management, 28(2), 434–442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.03.012
  • Lee, S., Koh, Y., & Kang, K. H. (2011). Moderating effect of capital intensity on the relationship between leverage and financial distress in the U.S. restaurant industry. International Journal of Hospitality Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2010.11.002
  • Lim, S. H., & Hong, Y. (2014). Fuel hedging and airline operating costs. Journal of Air Transport Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.12.009
  • Lin, K. C., & Dong, X. (2018). Corporate social responsibility engagement of financially distressed firms and their bankruptcy likelihood. Advances in Accounting. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2018.08.001
  • Loudon, G. F. (2004). Financial Risk Exposures in the Airline Industry: Evidence from Australia and New Zealand. Australian Journal of Management, 29(2), 295–316. https://doi.org/10.1177/031289620402900208
  • Maneenop, S., & Kotcharin, S. (2020). The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach. Journal of Air Transport Management, 89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101920
  • Merkert, R., & Morrell, P. S. (2012). Mergers and acquisitions in aviation - Management and economic perspectives on the size of airlines. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 48(4), 853–862. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2012.02.002
  • Merkert, R., & Swidan, H. (2019). Flying with(out)a safety net: Financial hedging in the airline industry. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 127(July 2018), 206–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2019.05.012
  • Mselmi, N., Lahiani, A., & Hamza, T. (2017). Financial distress prediction: The case of French small and medium-sized firms. International Review of Financial Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.02.004
  • Nishihara, M., & Shibata, T. (2018). Dynamic bankruptcy procedure with asymmetric information between insiders and outsiders. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.02.006
  • Ntoiti, K. (2015). Effect of capital structure on financial performance of listed commercial banks in kenya. A case study of kenya commercial bank limited. In Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology.
  • Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490395
  • Olanrewaju, B. T., Olubusoye, O. E., Adenikinju, A., & Akintande, O. J. (2019). A panel data analysis of renewable energy consumption in Africa. Renewable Energy, 140, 668–679. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.061
  • Pereira, D. da S., & Soares de Mello, J. C. C. B. (2021). Efficiency evaluation of Brazilian airlines operations considering the Covid-19 outbreak. Journal of Air Transport Management, 91, 101976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101976
  • Pham Vo Ninh, B., Do Thanh, T., & Vo Hong, D. (2018). Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction: An appropriate model for listed firms in Vietnam. Economic Systems. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2018.05.002
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COVID-19, FINANCIAL RISK AND THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 3, 1557 - 1581, 30.11.2021

Kasım Kiracı

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.911548
Cited By: 3

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate which financial variables increases or decreases the risk of the bankruptcy of airlines during periods of crisis when there is a possibility of financial distress. In this study, financial variables that affect financial distress in airlines and the possibility of bankruptcy were analyzed. In the framework of the study, the financial data from 35 airlines were examined. We employed the Altman (1968) Z-score, Springate (1978) S-score and Zmijewski (1984) J-score financial distress prediction models. The findings indicate that in times of crisis, when the probability of financial distress and bankruptcy increases (such as with Covid-19), leverage level, asset structure, firm size, firm profitability and liquidity ratio have a significant effect on an airline’s probability of bankruptcy score.

Keywords

Financial Risk Airline Industry Financial Distress Prediction Models

References

  • Abate, M., Christidis, P., & Purwanto, A. J. (2020). Government support to airlines in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Air Transport Management, 89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101931
  • Agustia, D., Muhammad, N. P. A., & Permatasari, Y. (2020). Earnings management, business strategy, and bankruptcy risk: evidence from Indonesia. Heliyon. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03317
  • Alanis, E., & Quijano, M. (2019). Investment-cash flow sensitivity and the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1978. North American Journal of Economics and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.08.004
  • Albers, S., & Rundshagen, V. (2020). European airlines′ strategic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (January-May, 2020). Journal of Air Transport Management, 87, 101863. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101863
  • Altman, E. I., Haldeman, R. G., & Narayanan, P. (1977). ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations. Journal of Banking and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(77)90017-6
  • Altman, I. (1968). Altman Z-Score. FCS Commercial Finance Group.
  • Arellano, M. (1987). Computing robust standard errors for within-groups estimators. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(4), 431–434.
  • Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490171
  • Berghöfer, B., & Lucey, B. (2014). Fuel hedging, operational hedging and risk exposure - Evidence from the global airline industry. International Review of Financial Analysis, 34, 124–139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2014.02.007
  • Bock, S., Mantin, B., Niemeier, H. M., & Forsyth, P. J. (2020). Bankruptcy in international vs domestic markets: Evidence from the airline industry. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 132(January), 728–743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.12.007
  • Budd, L., Ison, S., & Adrienne, N. (2020). European airline response to the COVID-19 pandemic – Contraction, consolidation and future considerations for airline business and management. Research in Transportation Business and Management, 37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rtbm.2020.100578
  • Charalambakis, Evangelos C; Espenlaub, Susanne K; Garrett, I. (2008). On the Impact of Financial Distress on Capital Structure: The Role of Leverage Dynamics. He University of Manchester, Working Paper, 2, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.03.012
  • Chee-Wooi, Hooy, & Chyn-Hwa, L. (2010). The Determinants of Systematic Risk Exposures of Airline Industry in East Asia. World Applied Sciences Journal 10 (Special Issue of Tourism & Hospitality), 10, 91–98. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03192151
  • Cheng, F., Chiao, C., Fang, Z., Wang, C., & Yao, S. (2019). Raising short-term debt for long-term investment and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.05.018
  • Della Seta, M., Morellec, E., & Zucchi, F. (2020). Short-term debt and incentives for risk-taking. Journal of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.07.008
  • Donangelo, A., Gourio, F., Kehrig, M., & Palacios, M. (2019). The cross-section of labor leverage and equity returns. Journal of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.10.016
  • Drakos, K. (2004). Terrorism-induced structural shifts in financial risk: Airline stocks in the aftermath of the September 11th terror attacks. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 435–446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2003.12.010
  • Driscoll, J. C., & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–559. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557825
  • Ellul, A., & Pagano, M. (2019). Corporate leverage and employees’ rights in bankruptcy. Journal of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.05.002
  • Froot, K. A. (1989). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Cross-Sectional Dependence and Heteroskedasticity in Financial Data. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24(3), 333. https://doi.org/10.2307/2330815
  • Fulmer, John G; Moon, James E; Gavin, Thomas A; Erwin, M. (1984). A bankruptcy classification model for small firms. Journal of Commercial Bank Lending, 66(11), 25–37.
  • Goto, M., & Suzuki, T. (2015). Optimal default and liquidation with tangible assets and debt renegotiation. Review of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2015.07.001
  • Grice, J. S., & Dugan, M. T. (2003). RE-ESTIMATIONS OF THE ZMIJEWSKI AND OHLSON BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS. In Advances in Accounting. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0882-6110(03)20004-3
  • Güriş, S. (2015). Stata ile panel veri modelleri. Der yayınevi.
  • Guzhva, V. S., & Pagiavlas, N. (2004). US Commercial airline performance after September 11, 2001: Decomposing the effect of the terrorist attack from macroeconomic influences. Journal of Air Transport Management, 10(5), 327–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2004.05.002
  • Hätty, H., & Hollmeier, S. (2003). Airline strategy in the 2001/2002 crisis — The Lufthansa example. Journal of Air Transport Management, 9(1), 51–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6997(02)00064-9
  • Hayes, S. K., Hodge, K. A., & Hughes, L. W. (2010). A Study of the Efficacy of Altman’s Z To Predict Bankruptcy of Specialty Retail Firms Doing Business in Contemporary Times. Economics & Business Journal.
  • He, Z., & Xiong, W. (2012). Rollover Risk and Credit Risk. Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01721.x
  • Hsiao, C. (2014). Analysis of panel data: Third edition. In Analysis of Panel Data: Third Edition. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139839327
  • Husein, M. F., & Pambekti, G. T. (2015). Precision of the models of Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover for predicting the financial distress. Journal of Economics, Business & Accountancy Ventura, 17(3), 405. https://doi.org/10.14414/jebav.v17i3.362
  • ICAO. (2020). Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID‐19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis. https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/COVID-19/ICAO_Coronavirus_Econ_Impact.pdf
  • Javadi, S., & Mollagholamali, M. (2018). Debt market illiquidity and correlated default risk. Finance Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.02.002
  • Kiraci, K., & Aydin, N. (2018). Factors that determine the capital structure: An empirical study on low-cost airlines. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 65(3). https://doi.org/10.2478/saeb-2018-0018
  • Kiraci, Kasım. (2019). Determinants of financial risk: An empirical application on low-cost carriers. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 66(3), 335–349. https://doi.org/10.2478/saeb-2019-0025
  • Lee, J. S., & Jang, S. C. (Shawn). (2007). The systematic-risk determinants of the US airline industry. Tourism Management, 28(2), 434–442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2006.03.012
  • Lee, S., Koh, Y., & Kang, K. H. (2011). Moderating effect of capital intensity on the relationship between leverage and financial distress in the U.S. restaurant industry. International Journal of Hospitality Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2010.11.002
  • Lim, S. H., & Hong, Y. (2014). Fuel hedging and airline operating costs. Journal of Air Transport Management. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2013.12.009
  • Lin, K. C., & Dong, X. (2018). Corporate social responsibility engagement of financially distressed firms and their bankruptcy likelihood. Advances in Accounting. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2018.08.001
  • Loudon, G. F. (2004). Financial Risk Exposures in the Airline Industry: Evidence from Australia and New Zealand. Australian Journal of Management, 29(2), 295–316. https://doi.org/10.1177/031289620402900208
  • Maneenop, S., & Kotcharin, S. (2020). The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach. Journal of Air Transport Management, 89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101920
  • Merkert, R., & Morrell, P. S. (2012). Mergers and acquisitions in aviation - Management and economic perspectives on the size of airlines. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 48(4), 853–862. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2012.02.002
  • Merkert, R., & Swidan, H. (2019). Flying with(out)a safety net: Financial hedging in the airline industry. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 127(July 2018), 206–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2019.05.012
  • Mselmi, N., Lahiani, A., & Hamza, T. (2017). Financial distress prediction: The case of French small and medium-sized firms. International Review of Financial Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.02.004
  • Nishihara, M., & Shibata, T. (2018). Dynamic bankruptcy procedure with asymmetric information between insiders and outsiders. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.02.006
  • Ntoiti, K. (2015). Effect of capital structure on financial performance of listed commercial banks in kenya. A case study of kenya commercial bank limited. In Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology.
  • Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490395
  • Olanrewaju, B. T., Olubusoye, O. E., Adenikinju, A., & Akintande, O. J. (2019). A panel data analysis of renewable energy consumption in Africa. Renewable Energy, 140, 668–679. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.02.061
  • Pereira, D. da S., & Soares de Mello, J. C. C. B. (2021). Efficiency evaluation of Brazilian airlines operations considering the Covid-19 outbreak. Journal of Air Transport Management, 91, 101976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101976
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Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Kasım Kiracı 0000-0002-2061-171X

Publication Date November 30, 2021
Submission Date April 8, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 8 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Kiracı, K. (2021). COVID-19, FINANCIAL RISK AND THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY. Journal of Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 8(3), 1557-1581. https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.911548

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