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Volatility Analysis of the Food Sector in Turkey in the Period of COVID-19

Year 2021, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 47 - 60, 24.10.2021

Abstract

In the literature, there are many studies investigating the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic. After the first COVID-19 case, these studies began to spread rapidly in Turkey. Due to the measures taken, activities in many sectors were suspended partially and full-time. Among the sectors, the food sector has experienced one of the most challenging processes. The food industry has entered a new era due to reasons such as changing consumption and production behaviors and disruptions in supply chains. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the food and beverage industry. In this context, daily data between 03.01.2017-08.04.2021 was used and the Food and Beverage Index (XGIDA) was included in the models as an explanatory variable. In the light of this information, the relationship between the XGIDA index and COVID-19 was examined with Univariate Volatility Models. In addition to the asymmetry and leverage effect in the XGIDA sector, an intra-period forecast was made to determine the fluctuations in the XGIDA sector during the sampling period.

References

  • Aday, S. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain. Food Quality and Safety, 167-180.
  • BBC. (2020). Koronavirüs: Dünya Sağlık Örgütü'nün acil durum ilanı ne anlama geliyor?
  • Beck, M., Bruins, Fox, T., Gayl, F., Giordano, D., Holmes, D., & Morgan, D. (2006). Agribusiness Industry . Washington: The Industrial College of the Armed Forces.
  • Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 307-327.
  • Boyacι-Gündüz, C. P., Ibrahi, S. A., Wei, O. C., & Galanakis, C. M. (2021). Transformation of the Food Sector: Security and Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Foods.
  • Brooks, C. (2008). Introductory Econometrics For Finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bucak, T., & Yiğit, S. (2021). The future of the chef occupation and the food and beverage sector after the COVID-19 outbreak: Opinions of Turkish chefs. Pubmed, National Library of Medicine.
  • Ceylan, F., & Özkan, B. (2020). Assessing Impacts of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production and Food Systems in the World and in Turkey. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Üniversitesi, 472-485.
  • Çil Yavuz, N. (2018). Finansal Ekonometri. İstanbul: DER.
  • Demirci, A., Şimşek, E., CAN, M. F., Akar, Ö., & Demirci, S. (2020). Has the pandemic (COVID-19) affected the fishery sector in regional scale? A case study on the fishery sector in Hatay province from Turkey. Marine And Life Sciences, 13-17.
  • Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 987-1007.
  • Engle, R. F., & J., G. C. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 251-276.
  • FAO. (2020, April). Food And Agriculture Oorganization Of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/2019-ncov/highlights/en/
  • Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R., & Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks. The Journal of Finance, 1779-1801.
  • Güney, O. İ., & Sangün, L. (2021). "How COVID-19 affects individuals' food consumption behaviour: a consumer survey on attitudes and habits in Turkey" . BRITISH FOOD JOURNAL. Jribi, S., Ismail, H. B., Doggui, D., & Debbabi, H. (2020). COVID-19 virus outbreak lockdown: What impacts on household food wastage? Nature Public Health Emergency Collection, 1-17.
  • Kumar, S., & Chandra, C. (2010). Supply Chain Disruption by Avian flu Pandemic for U.S. Companies: A Case Study. Transportation Journal , 61-73.
  • Mandelbrot, B. (1963). The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices. The Journal Of Business, 394-419.
  • Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 347-370.
  • Pimentel, D., Whitecraft, M., R., Z., Scott, S. R., Zhao, L., Satkiewicz, P., . . . Moe, T. L. (2010). Will Limited Land, Water, and Energy Control Human Population Numbers in the Future? Human Ecology, 599-611.
  • Sarıkovanlık, V., Koy, A., Akkaya, M., Yıldırım, H., & Kantar, L. (2019). Finans Biliminde Ekonometrik Uygulamaları, Kavram-Uygulama-Analiz. Ankara: Şeçkin Kitabevi.
  • Toktaş, Y. (2020). Food Sector in Turkey Durıng Covıd-19 Pandemıc. Current Researches inEconomics and Administrative Sciences.
  • Uysal, O., & Veziroğlu, P. (2020). Overview of Turkish Agriculture and Future Prospects in the COVID-19 Pandemic. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food-Sicence and Technology.
  • Yavuz, F. (2020). National and International Agricultural Policy in the Post-pandemic Period. Reflections on the Pandemic in the Future Of the World, 895-926.
  • Yılmaz, G., & Şahin, A. (2021). How does the COVID-19 outbreak affect the food and beverage industry in Turkey? Proposal of a holistic model. Journal of Foodservice Business Research .

COVID-19 Döneminde Türkiye'de Gıda Sektörünün Volatilite Analizi

Year 2021, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 47 - 60, 24.10.2021

Abstract

Literatürde pandeminin doğrudan ve dolaylı etkilerini araştıran birçok çalışma bulunmaktadır İlk COVID-19 vakasının ardından Türkiye'de de bu çalışmalar hızla yayılmaya başladı. Alınan tedbirler nedeniyle birçok sektörde faaliyetler kısmi ve tam zamanlı olarak durduruldu. Sektörler arasında gıda sektörü en zorlu süreçlerden birini yaşamıştır. Değişen tüketim ve üretim davranışları, tedarik zincirlerindeki aksaklıklar gibi nedenlerle gıda sektörü yeni bir döneme girmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı da COVID-19 salgınının yiyecek içecek sektörü üzerindeki etkisini belirlemektir. Bu bağlamda 03.01.2017-08.04.2021 tarihleri arasındaki günlük veriler kullanılmış ve Gıda ve İçecek Endeksi (XGIDA) açıklayıcı değişken olarak modellere dahil edilmiştir. Bu bilgiler ışığında XGIDA endeksi ve COVID-19 ilişkisi Tek Değişkenli Volatilite Modelleri ile incelenmiştir. XGIDA sektöründeki asimetri ve kaldıraç etkisinin yanı sıra örnekleme döneminde XGIDA sektöründeki dalgalanmaları belirlemek amacıyla dönem içi tahmin yapılmıştır.

References

  • Aday, S. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain. Food Quality and Safety, 167-180.
  • BBC. (2020). Koronavirüs: Dünya Sağlık Örgütü'nün acil durum ilanı ne anlama geliyor?
  • Beck, M., Bruins, Fox, T., Gayl, F., Giordano, D., Holmes, D., & Morgan, D. (2006). Agribusiness Industry . Washington: The Industrial College of the Armed Forces.
  • Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 307-327.
  • Boyacι-Gündüz, C. P., Ibrahi, S. A., Wei, O. C., & Galanakis, C. M. (2021). Transformation of the Food Sector: Security and Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Foods.
  • Brooks, C. (2008). Introductory Econometrics For Finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Bucak, T., & Yiğit, S. (2021). The future of the chef occupation and the food and beverage sector after the COVID-19 outbreak: Opinions of Turkish chefs. Pubmed, National Library of Medicine.
  • Ceylan, F., & Özkan, B. (2020). Assessing Impacts of COVID-19 on Agricultural Production and Food Systems in the World and in Turkey. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Üniversitesi, 472-485.
  • Çil Yavuz, N. (2018). Finansal Ekonometri. İstanbul: DER.
  • Demirci, A., Şimşek, E., CAN, M. F., Akar, Ö., & Demirci, S. (2020). Has the pandemic (COVID-19) affected the fishery sector in regional scale? A case study on the fishery sector in Hatay province from Turkey. Marine And Life Sciences, 13-17.
  • Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation. Econometrica, 987-1007.
  • Engle, R. F., & J., G. C. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 251-276.
  • FAO. (2020, April). Food And Agriculture Oorganization Of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/2019-ncov/highlights/en/
  • Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R., & Runkle, D. E. (1993). On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks. The Journal of Finance, 1779-1801.
  • Güney, O. İ., & Sangün, L. (2021). "How COVID-19 affects individuals' food consumption behaviour: a consumer survey on attitudes and habits in Turkey" . BRITISH FOOD JOURNAL. Jribi, S., Ismail, H. B., Doggui, D., & Debbabi, H. (2020). COVID-19 virus outbreak lockdown: What impacts on household food wastage? Nature Public Health Emergency Collection, 1-17.
  • Kumar, S., & Chandra, C. (2010). Supply Chain Disruption by Avian flu Pandemic for U.S. Companies: A Case Study. Transportation Journal , 61-73.
  • Mandelbrot, B. (1963). The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices. The Journal Of Business, 394-419.
  • Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach. Econometrica, 347-370.
  • Pimentel, D., Whitecraft, M., R., Z., Scott, S. R., Zhao, L., Satkiewicz, P., . . . Moe, T. L. (2010). Will Limited Land, Water, and Energy Control Human Population Numbers in the Future? Human Ecology, 599-611.
  • Sarıkovanlık, V., Koy, A., Akkaya, M., Yıldırım, H., & Kantar, L. (2019). Finans Biliminde Ekonometrik Uygulamaları, Kavram-Uygulama-Analiz. Ankara: Şeçkin Kitabevi.
  • Toktaş, Y. (2020). Food Sector in Turkey Durıng Covıd-19 Pandemıc. Current Researches inEconomics and Administrative Sciences.
  • Uysal, O., & Veziroğlu, P. (2020). Overview of Turkish Agriculture and Future Prospects in the COVID-19 Pandemic. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food-Sicence and Technology.
  • Yavuz, F. (2020). National and International Agricultural Policy in the Post-pandemic Period. Reflections on the Pandemic in the Future Of the World, 895-926.
  • Yılmaz, G., & Şahin, A. (2021). How does the COVID-19 outbreak affect the food and beverage industry in Turkey? Proposal of a holistic model. Journal of Foodservice Business Research .
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Süreyya İmre 0000-0001-8904-6635

Ceren Demir 0000-0002-8285-3458

Publication Date October 24, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 2 Issue: 2

Cite

APA İmre, S., & Demir, C. (2021). Volatility Analysis of the Food Sector in Turkey in the Period of COVID-19. İşletme, 2(2), 47-60.