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Dünya Tahıl Üretim ve Veriminin Karbon Dioksit Emisyonu Üzerine Etkisini İnceleyen İstatistiksel Bir Araştırma

Year 2022, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 111 - 123, 10.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.55007/dufed.1081306

Abstract

Bu çalışmada; Dünya tahıl üretim ve veriminin CO2 emisyonu üzerine etkisi istatiksel olarak inceleyerek, elde edilen sonuçlar ışığında gelecekte üretimi yapılacak tahıl bitkilerinde kullanılan girdilerin daha bilinçli tüketilmesi gerektiği sonucunun ortaya çıkarılması hedeflenmiştir. Araştırmada Ocak 1961- Ocak 2018 yılları arasında Dünya’da tahıl üretim (MT), verim (kg/ha) ve CO2 emisyonu (kt) arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler incelenmiş olup tahıl üretim, verim ve CO2 emisyonu serilerinin logaritması kullanılarak seri değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizleri ile incelenmiştir. Ardından etki-tepki ve varyans ayrıştırma analizleri oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmada değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiş, FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemlerine göre sırasıyla Tahıl verim, üretim ile CO2 arasında uzun dönemde pozitif ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Buna göre Tahıl verimindeki %1’lik artış CO2 emisyonunda %1.80’lik, Tahıl üretimindeki %1’lik artış CO2 emisyonunda %1.30’luk artışa yol açtığı tespit edilmiş olup, Toda & Yamamoto test sonuçları incelendiğinde tahıl verimi ve üretiminden CO2 emisyonuna doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Varyans Ayrışma Analizi sonuçlarına göre; CO2 emisyonu’ da meydana gelen değişimlerin yüksek oranda kendisinden ve modele dahil edilmeyen diğer değişkenlerden kaynaklandığını ifade etmek mümkündür. Fakat ilerleyen yıllarda CO2’de meydana gelen değişimlerin tahıl üretimi ve veriminden artan oranda meydana geldiği söylenebilir. Tespit edilen oranların düşürülmesine yönelik çalışmaların yapılması gerektiği önerilmektedir.

References

  • G. Akın, “Küresel ısınma, nedenleri ve sonuçları’’, Ankara Üniversitesi Dil Ve Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 29-43, 2006.
  • J. Bellarby, B. Foereid, A. Hastings, P. Smith, Cool farming: climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential. Greenpeace International, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2008.
  • FAO. World food and agriculture – Statistical Yearbook, Rome, 2021.
  • Z. Koday. “Türkiye'nin tahıl üretimi’’, Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, vol. 35, pp. 299-320, 2014. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/tcd/issue/21252/228015
  • A. Muller, C. Aubert, The potential of organic agriculture to mitigate the ınfluence of agriculture on global warming. a review, S. Bellon, S. Penvern Eds, Organic Farming, Prototype for Sustainable Agricultures.. 2014. DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-7927-3_13
  • P. K. Narayan, S. Popp, “A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time’’, Journal of Applied Statistics, vol. 37, no. 9, pp. 1425-1438, 2010.
  • W. Enders, J. Lee, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 74, no. 4, pp. 574-599, 2012.
  • J. L. Carrion-i-Silvestre, A. Sanso, “Testing the null of cointegration with structural breaks. Oxford’’, Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 68, no. 5, pp. 623-646, 2006.
  • A. W. Gregory, B. E. Hansen, “Practıtıoners Corner: Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts’’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 58, pp. 555-560, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1996.mp58003008.x
  • Y. Arai, E. Kurozumi, “Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break’’, Econometric Review, vol. 2, pp. 705-739, 2007.
  • M. L. Tseng, K. H. Tan, “ Sustainable consumption and production in emerging markets’’, International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 181, pp. 257-261, 2016.
  • H. Y. Toda, T. Yamamoto, “ Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes’’, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 66, pp. 225–250, 1995.

A Statistical Study Examining the Effect of World Grain Production and Yield on Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Year 2022, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 111 - 123, 10.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.55007/dufed.1081306

Abstract

In this study; by examining the effect of world grain production and yield on CO2 emissions statistically, it is aimed to reveal that the inputs used in the cereal crops to be produced in the future should be consumed more consciously in the light of the results obtained. In the study, the short and long-term relationships between grain production (MT), yield (kg/ha) and CO2 emission (kt) in the world between January 1961 and January 2018 were examined, and the logarithm of grain production, yield and CO2 emission series was used to determine the relationship between the serial variables. The long-term relationship was examined by cointegration and causality analyses. Then, impulse-response and variance decomposition analyzes were created. In the study, the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables was determined, and a long-term positive relationship was determined between grain yield, production and CO2, respectively, according to FMOLS, DOLS and CCR methods. Accordingly, it was determined that 1% increase in grain yield led to 1.80% increase in CO2 emission, 1% increase in grain production led to 1.30% increase in CO2 emission. The existence of a two-way causality relationship has been determined. According to the results of Variance Decomposition Analysis; It is possible to state that the changes in CO2 emission are mostly caused by itself and other variables that are not included in the model. However, it can be said that the changes in CO2 in the following years occurred at an increasing rate from grain production and yield. It is suggested that studies should be carried out to reduce the detected rates.

References

  • G. Akın, “Küresel ısınma, nedenleri ve sonuçları’’, Ankara Üniversitesi Dil Ve Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 29-43, 2006.
  • J. Bellarby, B. Foereid, A. Hastings, P. Smith, Cool farming: climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential. Greenpeace International, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2008.
  • FAO. World food and agriculture – Statistical Yearbook, Rome, 2021.
  • Z. Koday. “Türkiye'nin tahıl üretimi’’, Türk Coğrafya Dergisi, vol. 35, pp. 299-320, 2014. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/tcd/issue/21252/228015
  • A. Muller, C. Aubert, The potential of organic agriculture to mitigate the ınfluence of agriculture on global warming. a review, S. Bellon, S. Penvern Eds, Organic Farming, Prototype for Sustainable Agricultures.. 2014. DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-7927-3_13
  • P. K. Narayan, S. Popp, “A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time’’, Journal of Applied Statistics, vol. 37, no. 9, pp. 1425-1438, 2010.
  • W. Enders, J. Lee, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 74, no. 4, pp. 574-599, 2012.
  • J. L. Carrion-i-Silvestre, A. Sanso, “Testing the null of cointegration with structural breaks. Oxford’’, Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 68, no. 5, pp. 623-646, 2006.
  • A. W. Gregory, B. E. Hansen, “Practıtıoners Corner: Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts’’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 58, pp. 555-560, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1996.mp58003008.x
  • Y. Arai, E. Kurozumi, “Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break’’, Econometric Review, vol. 2, pp. 705-739, 2007.
  • M. L. Tseng, K. H. Tan, “ Sustainable consumption and production in emerging markets’’, International Journal of Production Economics, vol. 181, pp. 257-261, 2016.
  • H. Y. Toda, T. Yamamoto, “ Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes’’, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 66, pp. 225–250, 1995.
There are 12 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Statistics, Agricultural Engineering (Other)
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Gizem Kamçı 0000-0001-6551-8669

Behiye Bicer 0000-0001-8357-8470

Early Pub Date April 1, 2022
Publication Date June 10, 2022
Submission Date March 2, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 11 Issue: 1

Cite

IEEE G. Kamçı and B. Bicer, “Dünya Tahıl Üretim ve Veriminin Karbon Dioksit Emisyonu Üzerine Etkisini İnceleyen İstatistiksel Bir Araştırma”, DUFED, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 111–123, 2022, doi: 10.55007/dufed.1081306.


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