Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

Türkiye’de İktisadi Küreselleşmenin Büyüme Üzerindeki Yapısal ve Tarihsel Etkileri

Year 2019, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 1 - 27, 20.03.2019

Abstract

Bu çalışmada iktisadi küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri tarihsel olarak araştırılmaktadır. Türkiye’nin 1970-2016 dönemine ilişkin verileri kullanılarak yapılan çalışmada, iktisadi küreselleşmeyi temsilen ticari ve finansal küreselleşme alt endeksleri seçilmiştir. Ampirik uygulamada ADF, PP, Ng-Perron ve KPSS testleri ile durağanlık analizi yapılmış, değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Johansen-Juselius yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Bağımsız değişkenlerin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki uzun dönemli etkilerinin belirlenmesi amaçlandığı için, çalışmada uzun dönem kısıtlı yapısal VAR modeli benimsenmiştir. Çalışmada ayrıca, her bir küreselleşme şokunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki rolünün belirlenmesi için tarihsel ayrıştırma yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, ticari ve finansal küreselleşme ekonomik büyüme üzerinde uzun dönemde negatif ve kalıcı bir etkiye sahiptir. Bunun yanında, küreselleşme şoklarının Türkiye’deki ekonomik krizleri açıklayıcı etkisi, ekonomik genişleme üzerindeki etkisinden daha büyük bulunmuştur. 

References

  • Altan, Y. ve Arslan, M. (2016). Küreselleşme ve Organize Suç, Uluslarararası İşletme, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Perspektifleri Dergisi, 1: 73-86.
  • Altıner, A., Bozkurt, E. ve Toktaş, Y. (2018). Küreselleşme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri için Bir Uygulama. Finans, Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 639: 117-162.
  • Amisano, G. & C. Giannini (1997). Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics, Second Edition, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
  • Arestis, P. ve Glickman, M. (2002). Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia: Dispelling Illusion the Minskyan Way, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 26, pp. 237-260.
  • Arrighi, G. (2000). Uzun Yirminci Yüzyıl: Para, Güç ve Çağımızın Kökenleri, (Çev. Recep Boztemur), 1. B., İmge Kitabevi, Ankara.
  • Blanchard, O. J. & D. Quah (1989). The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances, American Economic Review, 79(4): 655-673.
  • Breitung, J., R. Brüggemann & H. Lütkepohl (2004). Structural Vector Autoregressive Modeling and Impulse Responses, içinde Lütkepohl, H. & M. Kratzig (Ed.), Applied Time Series Econometrics, 159-196.
  • Burbidge, J. ve Harrison, A. (1985). A Historical Decomposition of the Great Depression to Determine the Role of Money. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16: 45-54.
  • Chang, C. P., Berdiev, A.N., & Lee, C. C. (2013). Energy exports, globalization and economic growth: The case of South Caucasus, Economic Modelling 33, 333-346.
  • Chang, C.-P. & Lee, C.-C. (2011). The partisan comparisons for global effect on economic growth: Panel data analysis of former communist countries and European OECD members. Eastern European Economics 49(6), 5-27.
  • Davidson, P. (1998). The Case for Regulating International Capital Flows, paper presented at Social Market Foundation Seminar on Regulation Capital Movements, November, London.
  • Doğan, B. ve Can, M. (2016). Küreselleşmenin Büyümeye Etkisi: Güney Kore Örnekleminde Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(2): 197-220.
  • Dreher, A. (2006). Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a New Index of Globalization, Applied Economics, 2006(38), pp.1091-1110.
  • Dreher, A., Gaston, N. ve Martens, P. (2008). Measuring Globalisation – Gauging its Consequences, New York: Springer.
  • Eichengreen, B. vd. (1999). Liberalizing Capital Movements: Some Analytical Issues, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues17.
  • Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley and Sons, INC., New York.
  • Eren, M. V. ve Çütçü, İ. (2018). Küreselleşmenin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1):47-61.
  • Granger, C.W.J. & P. Newbold (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, Vol: 2, ss 111-120.
  • Gurgul, H. ve Lach, L. (2014). Globalization and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Decades of Transition in CEE, Economic Modelling, 36, 99-107.
  • Hayaloğlu, P., Kalaycı, C. & Artan, S. (2015). Küreselleşme Farklı Gelir Grubundaki Ülkelerde Ekonomik Büyümeyi Nasıl Etkilemektedir? Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(1), 119-152.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. & K. Juselius (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52:169-209.
  • Kocourek, A., Laboutková, Š. ve Bednářová, P. (2013). Economic, Social and Political Globalization and Human Development. International Journal of Business and Economic Development, 1(2): 10-20.
  • Köse, A. H. & A. Öncü (2003). İktisadın Piyasası, Kapitalizmin Ekonomisi, içinde Köse, A. H., F. Şenses ve E. Yeldan (Der.), İktisat Üzerine Yazılar I – Küresel Düzen: Birikim, Devlet ve Sınıflar: Korkut Boratav’a Armağan, İletişim Yay., İstanbul, ss. 93-141.
  • Kregel, J. A. (1998). Yes, ‘It’ Did Happen Again - A Minsky Crisis Happened in Asia, The Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, No. 234.
  • Leitao, N.C. (2013). Cultural Globalization and Economic Growth, The Romanian Economic Journal, 47: 17-28.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). A New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
  • Mandel, E. (2008). Marksist Ekonomi El Kitabı, 3. Baskı, (Çev. Orhan Suda), Özgür Üniversite Kitaplığı No. 68, Maki Basın Yayın, Ankara.
  • Marx, K. (1867 [2007]). Kapital, Kapitalist Üretimin Eleştirel Bir Tahlili, Birinci Cilt, (Çev. Alaattin Bilgi), 8. Baskı, Sol Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Marx, K. (1894 [2006]). Kapital, Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi, Üçüncü Cilt, (Çev. Alaattin Bilgi), 5. Baskı, Sol Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Mishkin, F. (1996). Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective, NBER Working Paper, No. 5600.
  • Mishkin, F. (1998). International Capital Mobility, Financial Volatility and Financial Instability, NBER Working Paper, No. 6390.
  • Mishkin, F. (1999). Lessons from the Asian Crisis, Journal of International Money and Finance, 18: 709-723.
  • Mitchell, W. C. (1951). Business Cycles, içinde Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Richard D. Irwin, Inc., ss.43-60.
  • OECD (1997). Economic Globalisation and the Environment, OECD Publications, 2, Paris, France.
  • Olimpia, N. ve Stela, D. (2017). Impact of Globalisation on Economic Growth in Romania: An Empirical Analysis of its Economic, Social and Political Dimensions. Studia Universitatis “Vasile Goldis” Arad Economics Series, 27(1): 29-40.
  • Osterloh, S. (2012). Words Speak Louder than Actions: The Impact of Politics on Economic Performance, Journal of Comparative Economics, 40: 318-336.
  • Öncü, A. (2008). Küreselleşme, içinde Ekonomik Kurumlar ve Kavramlar Sözlüğü: Eleştirel Bir Giriş, (Ed. Fikret Başkaya ve Aydın Ördek), Özgür Üniversite Yayınları, 72: 741-753.
  • Palley, T. I. (1999), “International Finance and Problems of Capital Account Governance”, Levy Institute Conference Proceedings: 9th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference of Financial Structure, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York.
  • Peter, S. I., Elizabeth, I. (2013), Economic Growth and Globalization in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis, Asian-African Journal of Economics and Econometrics, 13(2): 145-159.
  • Potrafke, N. (2014). The Evidence on Globalization, CESifo Working Paper, No. 4708, Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich.
  • Samimi, P. ve Jenatabadi, H. S. (2014). Globalization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Complementarities. Plos One, 9(4): 1-7.
  • Sapkota, J.B. (2010). Globalization`s convergence effect on human quality of life (QOL) in Asia: Evidence from the KOF index of globalization, Asian Regional Integration Review 2(1): 1-28.
  • Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica, 48(1): 1-48.
  • Suci, S. C., Asmara, A. ve Mulatsih, S. (2015). The Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth in ASEAN. International Journal of Administrative Science & Organization, 22(2): 79-87.
  • Türedi, S. (2016). Küreselleşmenin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi, International Osmaneli Social Sciences Congress, Korkuteli, 12-13-14 October 2016.
  • United Nations (2004). Globalization and the State: Challenges for Economic Growth and Human Development. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, ST/ESA/PAD/SER.E/80, New York.
  • Villaverde, J., & Maza, A. (2011). Globalization, growth and convergence, World Economy 34(6): 952-971.
  • Yeldan, E. (2001). Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, İletişim Yay., İstanbul.
  • Ying, Y-H., Chang, K. ve Lee, C-H. (2014). The Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, XVII(2): 25-34.

Structural and Historical Effects of Economic Globalization on the Growth in Turkey

Year 2019, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 1 - 27, 20.03.2019

Abstract

In this study, the effects of economic globalization on economic growth are studied historically. In the study conducted using Turkey's data for the 1970-2016 period, trade and financial globalization sub-indices representing economic globalization were selected. In empirical application, ADF, PP, Ng-Perron and KPSS tests have been performed for stationary analysis then tested relation among variables by using Johansen-Juselius Method. The study has adopted the long-run restricted structural VAR model because of that it is aimed to determine the long-run effects of independent variables on economic growth. The study also used the historical decomposition method to determine the role of each globalization shock on economic growth. According to the findings of the study, trade and financial globalization has a negative and permanent effect on economic growth in the long-run. Moreover, the explanatory impact of globalization shocks on the economic crisis was found to be greater than the impact on economic expansion in Turkey.

References

  • Altan, Y. ve Arslan, M. (2016). Küreselleşme ve Organize Suç, Uluslarararası İşletme, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Perspektifleri Dergisi, 1: 73-86.
  • Altıner, A., Bozkurt, E. ve Toktaş, Y. (2018). Küreselleşme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri için Bir Uygulama. Finans, Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 639: 117-162.
  • Amisano, G. & C. Giannini (1997). Topics in Structural VAR Econometrics, Second Edition, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
  • Arestis, P. ve Glickman, M. (2002). Financial Crisis in Southeast Asia: Dispelling Illusion the Minskyan Way, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 26, pp. 237-260.
  • Arrighi, G. (2000). Uzun Yirminci Yüzyıl: Para, Güç ve Çağımızın Kökenleri, (Çev. Recep Boztemur), 1. B., İmge Kitabevi, Ankara.
  • Blanchard, O. J. & D. Quah (1989). The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances, American Economic Review, 79(4): 655-673.
  • Breitung, J., R. Brüggemann & H. Lütkepohl (2004). Structural Vector Autoregressive Modeling and Impulse Responses, içinde Lütkepohl, H. & M. Kratzig (Ed.), Applied Time Series Econometrics, 159-196.
  • Burbidge, J. ve Harrison, A. (1985). A Historical Decomposition of the Great Depression to Determine the Role of Money. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16: 45-54.
  • Chang, C. P., Berdiev, A.N., & Lee, C. C. (2013). Energy exports, globalization and economic growth: The case of South Caucasus, Economic Modelling 33, 333-346.
  • Chang, C.-P. & Lee, C.-C. (2011). The partisan comparisons for global effect on economic growth: Panel data analysis of former communist countries and European OECD members. Eastern European Economics 49(6), 5-27.
  • Davidson, P. (1998). The Case for Regulating International Capital Flows, paper presented at Social Market Foundation Seminar on Regulation Capital Movements, November, London.
  • Doğan, B. ve Can, M. (2016). Küreselleşmenin Büyümeye Etkisi: Güney Kore Örnekleminde Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(2): 197-220.
  • Dreher, A. (2006). Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a New Index of Globalization, Applied Economics, 2006(38), pp.1091-1110.
  • Dreher, A., Gaston, N. ve Martens, P. (2008). Measuring Globalisation – Gauging its Consequences, New York: Springer.
  • Eichengreen, B. vd. (1999). Liberalizing Capital Movements: Some Analytical Issues, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues17.
  • Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley and Sons, INC., New York.
  • Eren, M. V. ve Çütçü, İ. (2018). Küreselleşmenin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1):47-61.
  • Granger, C.W.J. & P. Newbold (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics, Journal of Econometrics, Vol: 2, ss 111-120.
  • Gurgul, H. ve Lach, L. (2014). Globalization and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Decades of Transition in CEE, Economic Modelling, 36, 99-107.
  • Hayaloğlu, P., Kalaycı, C. & Artan, S. (2015). Küreselleşme Farklı Gelir Grubundaki Ülkelerde Ekonomik Büyümeyi Nasıl Etkilemektedir? Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(1), 119-152.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231-254.
  • Johansen, S. & K. Juselius (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52:169-209.
  • Kocourek, A., Laboutková, Š. ve Bednářová, P. (2013). Economic, Social and Political Globalization and Human Development. International Journal of Business and Economic Development, 1(2): 10-20.
  • Köse, A. H. & A. Öncü (2003). İktisadın Piyasası, Kapitalizmin Ekonomisi, içinde Köse, A. H., F. Şenses ve E. Yeldan (Der.), İktisat Üzerine Yazılar I – Küresel Düzen: Birikim, Devlet ve Sınıflar: Korkut Boratav’a Armağan, İletişim Yay., İstanbul, ss. 93-141.
  • Kregel, J. A. (1998). Yes, ‘It’ Did Happen Again - A Minsky Crisis Happened in Asia, The Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, No. 234.
  • Leitao, N.C. (2013). Cultural Globalization and Economic Growth, The Romanian Economic Journal, 47: 17-28.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2005). A New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
  • Mandel, E. (2008). Marksist Ekonomi El Kitabı, 3. Baskı, (Çev. Orhan Suda), Özgür Üniversite Kitaplığı No. 68, Maki Basın Yayın, Ankara.
  • Marx, K. (1867 [2007]). Kapital, Kapitalist Üretimin Eleştirel Bir Tahlili, Birinci Cilt, (Çev. Alaattin Bilgi), 8. Baskı, Sol Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Marx, K. (1894 [2006]). Kapital, Ekonomi Politiğin Eleştirisi, Üçüncü Cilt, (Çev. Alaattin Bilgi), 5. Baskı, Sol Yayınları, Ankara.
  • Mishkin, F. (1996). Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective, NBER Working Paper, No. 5600.
  • Mishkin, F. (1998). International Capital Mobility, Financial Volatility and Financial Instability, NBER Working Paper, No. 6390.
  • Mishkin, F. (1999). Lessons from the Asian Crisis, Journal of International Money and Finance, 18: 709-723.
  • Mitchell, W. C. (1951). Business Cycles, içinde Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Richard D. Irwin, Inc., ss.43-60.
  • OECD (1997). Economic Globalisation and the Environment, OECD Publications, 2, Paris, France.
  • Olimpia, N. ve Stela, D. (2017). Impact of Globalisation on Economic Growth in Romania: An Empirical Analysis of its Economic, Social and Political Dimensions. Studia Universitatis “Vasile Goldis” Arad Economics Series, 27(1): 29-40.
  • Osterloh, S. (2012). Words Speak Louder than Actions: The Impact of Politics on Economic Performance, Journal of Comparative Economics, 40: 318-336.
  • Öncü, A. (2008). Küreselleşme, içinde Ekonomik Kurumlar ve Kavramlar Sözlüğü: Eleştirel Bir Giriş, (Ed. Fikret Başkaya ve Aydın Ördek), Özgür Üniversite Yayınları, 72: 741-753.
  • Palley, T. I. (1999), “International Finance and Problems of Capital Account Governance”, Levy Institute Conference Proceedings: 9th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference of Financial Structure, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York.
  • Peter, S. I., Elizabeth, I. (2013), Economic Growth and Globalization in Nigeria: A Causality Analysis, Asian-African Journal of Economics and Econometrics, 13(2): 145-159.
  • Potrafke, N. (2014). The Evidence on Globalization, CESifo Working Paper, No. 4708, Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich.
  • Samimi, P. ve Jenatabadi, H. S. (2014). Globalization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Complementarities. Plos One, 9(4): 1-7.
  • Sapkota, J.B. (2010). Globalization`s convergence effect on human quality of life (QOL) in Asia: Evidence from the KOF index of globalization, Asian Regional Integration Review 2(1): 1-28.
  • Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica, 48(1): 1-48.
  • Suci, S. C., Asmara, A. ve Mulatsih, S. (2015). The Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth in ASEAN. International Journal of Administrative Science & Organization, 22(2): 79-87.
  • Türedi, S. (2016). Küreselleşmenin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi, International Osmaneli Social Sciences Congress, Korkuteli, 12-13-14 October 2016.
  • United Nations (2004). Globalization and the State: Challenges for Economic Growth and Human Development. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, ST/ESA/PAD/SER.E/80, New York.
  • Villaverde, J., & Maza, A. (2011). Globalization, growth and convergence, World Economy 34(6): 952-971.
  • Yeldan, E. (2001). Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, İletişim Yay., İstanbul.
  • Ying, Y-H., Chang, K. ve Lee, C-H. (2014). The Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, XVII(2): 25-34.
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Şükrü Apaydın 0000-0003-4640-8135

Publication Date March 20, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Apaydın, Ş. (2019). Türkiye’de İktisadi Küreselleşmenin Büyüme Üzerindeki Yapısal ve Tarihsel Etkileri. Akademik İzdüşüm Dergisi, 4(1), 1-27.

The publication rights of the articles accepted for publication and all kinds of copyrights in the published articles belong to the journal. No copyright is paid to the author.