Year 2015,
Volume: 26 Issue: 1, 29 - 41, 28.12.2015
Abstract
The aim of the study is to analyze the effects of demand shocks in Turkish tourism sector. In this context, a panel data set has been executed of the time period including from 1991 to 2010 which has been gathered from the tourism statistics database of the ministry of Culture and Tourism of The Republic of Turkey and panel unit root analysis established. By determining the panel unit root analysis; the effects of demand shocks have been taken into investigation whether they are permanent or not. As a result of the analysis, it is reached to a decision that the demand shocks are non-permanent. In this study, it is aimed to identify the demand shocks of Turkish tourism sector and to analyze the effects so that it has a pioneer manner for the subject considered
References
- Bahar, O. (2006). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Var Analizi Yaklaşımı, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 13 (2): 137-150.
- Bahar, O. (2006). Türkiye’nin İktisadi Gelişiminde Turizm Sektörüne Sağlanan Teşviklerin Rolü: Uygulamalı Bir Araştırma, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 241: 128-139.
- Bahar, O. (2010). Turizm Sektörüne Sağlanan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının (DYSY) Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Olan Olası Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1986-2006), Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21 (1): 27-40.
- Bahar, O. ve Kozak M. (2007). Advancing Destination Competitiveness Research: Comparison Between Tourists and Service Providers, Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 22 (2): 61-71.
- Bahar, O. ve Bozkurt, K. (2010). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21 (2): 1-11.
- Bhattacharya, M. ve Narayan, P. K. (2005). Testing for the Random Walk Hypothesis in the Case of Visitor Arrivals: Evidence from Indian Tourism, Applied Economics, 37: 1485-1490.
- Breusch, T. S ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics, Review of Economic Studies, 47: 239-253.
- Choi, I. (2001). Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 229-272.
- Gökovalı, U. ve Bahar, O. (2006). Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Mediterrranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach, Anatolia An International Journal of Tourism And Hospitality Research, 17 (2): 155-168.
- Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels, Econometrics Journal, 3: 148-161.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, H. ve Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/lm.pdf, Erişim tarihi: 16.10.2013.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1): 53-74.
- Kozak, M., Baloğlu, Ş. ve Bahar O. (2010). Measuring Destination Competitiveness: Multiple Destinations vs Multiple Nationalities, Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management, 19 (1): 56-71.
- Lee, C. G. (2009). Are Tourist Arrivals Stationary? Evidence from Singapore, International Journal of Tourism Research. 11: 1-6.
- Levin, A. ve Lin, C. (1992). Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. University of California-San Diego Discussion Paper, No: 92-23.
- Levin, A. ve Lin, C. (1993). Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: New Result. University of California-San Diego Discussion Paper, No: 93-56.
- Maddala, G. S. ve Wu, S. (1997). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test. Ohio State University Working Paper.
- Narayan P. K. (2011). Are Shocks to Tourism Transitory at Business Cycle Horizons? Applied Economics, 43: 2071-2077.
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Structure of Tourist Expenditure in Fiji: Evidence from Unit Root Structural Break Tests, Applied Economics, 37: 1157-1161.
- Narayan, P. K. (2008). Examining the Behaviour of Visitor Arrivals to Australia from 28 Different Countries, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 42 (5): 751-761.
- Narayan, P. K. ve Prasad, A. (2008). Examining the Behaviour of Visitor Arrivals to Australia from Twenty Different Countries: An Application Of Panel Unit Root Tests, Economic Papers, 27 (3): 265-271.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics,
- No: 0435.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2006). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Cambridge Working Papers
- in Economics, No: 0346.
- Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142 (1): 50-93.
- Sivri, U. (2010). Şokların Yabancı Ziyaretçi Sayısı ve Yabancı Ziyaretçi Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi Kalıcı Mıdır? TİSK
- Akademi Dergisi, 5 (10): 220-237.
- Smyth, R., Nielsen, I. ve Mishra, V. (2009). I’ve been to Bali too’ (And I Will Be Going Back): Are Terrorist Shocks To Bali’s Tourist Arrivals Permanent or Transitory?, Applied Economics, 41 (11): 1367-1378.
- WTO (World Tourism Organization) (2011). Tourism Highlights. Spain.
- World Tourism Organization. 2014. Tourism Highlights 2014 Edition, Spain.
- www.kultur.gov.tr/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15 Aralık 2013).
- www.tursab.org.tr, (Erişim Tarihi: 15 Aralık 2013).
- Yılgör, M. (2008). OECD Ülkelerinde İkiz Açık Teorisinin Panel Veri Modelleri İle İncelenmesi (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi), İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ekonometri Anabilim Dalı, Ekonometri Bilim Dalı.
Year 2015,
Volume: 26 Issue: 1, 29 - 41, 28.12.2015
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türk turizm sektöründeki talep şoklarının etkilerini analiz etmektir. Bu bağlamda Türkiye’ye en çok turist gönderen 24 ülke için T.C. Kültür ve Turizm Bakanlığının Turizm İstatistikleri veri tabanından elde edilen veriler ile 1991-2010 dönemini kapsayan bir panel veri seti oluşturulmuş ve panel birim kök analizleri yapılmıştır. Yapılan panel birim kök analizleri ile söz konusu şokların etkilerinin geçici mi yoksa kalıcı mı olduğu analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan panel birim kök analizleri sonucunda söz konusu talep şoklarının etkilerinin geçici olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu kapsamda bu çalışma Türk turizm sektöründe talep şoklarının tanımlanması ve etkilerinin analizi noktasında öncül bir çalışma olma niteliği taşımaktadır.
ABSTRACT
The aim of the study is to analyze the effects of demand shocks in Turkish tourism sector. In this context, a panel data set has been executed of the time period including from 1991 to 2010 which has been gathered from the tourism statistics database of the ministry of Culture and Tourism of The Republic of Turkey and panel unit root analysis established. By determining the panel unit root analysis; the effects of demand shocks have been taken into investigation whether they are permanent or not. As a result of the analysis, it is reached to a decision that the demand shocks are non-permanent. In this study, it is aimed to identify the demand shocks of Turkish tourism sector and to analyze the effects so that it has a pioneer manner for the subject considered.
Keywords
References
- Bahar, O. (2006). Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye’nin Ekonomik Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Var Analizi Yaklaşımı, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 13 (2): 137-150.
- Bahar, O. (2006). Türkiye’nin İktisadi Gelişiminde Turizm Sektörüne Sağlanan Teşviklerin Rolü: Uygulamalı Bir Araştırma, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 241: 128-139.
- Bahar, O. (2010). Turizm Sektörüne Sağlanan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının (DYSY) Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Olan Olası Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1986-2006), Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21 (1): 27-40.
- Bahar, O. ve Kozak M. (2007). Advancing Destination Competitiveness Research: Comparison Between Tourists and Service Providers, Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 22 (2): 61-71.
- Bahar, O. ve Bozkurt, K. (2010). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Turizm-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21 (2): 1-11.
- Bhattacharya, M. ve Narayan, P. K. (2005). Testing for the Random Walk Hypothesis in the Case of Visitor Arrivals: Evidence from Indian Tourism, Applied Economics, 37: 1485-1490.
- Breusch, T. S ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification Tests in Econometrics, Review of Economic Studies, 47: 239-253.
- Choi, I. (2001). Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 229-272.
- Gökovalı, U. ve Bahar, O. (2006). Contribution of Tourism to Economic Growth in Mediterrranean Countries: A Panel Data Approach, Anatolia An International Journal of Tourism And Hospitality Research, 17 (2): 155-168.
- Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels, Econometrics Journal, 3: 148-161.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, H. ve Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/pesaran/lm.pdf, Erişim tarihi: 16.10.2013.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1): 53-74.
- Kozak, M., Baloğlu, Ş. ve Bahar O. (2010). Measuring Destination Competitiveness: Multiple Destinations vs Multiple Nationalities, Journal of Hospitality Marketing & Management, 19 (1): 56-71.
- Lee, C. G. (2009). Are Tourist Arrivals Stationary? Evidence from Singapore, International Journal of Tourism Research. 11: 1-6.
- Levin, A. ve Lin, C. (1992). Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. University of California-San Diego Discussion Paper, No: 92-23.
- Levin, A. ve Lin, C. (1993). Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: New Result. University of California-San Diego Discussion Paper, No: 93-56.
- Maddala, G. S. ve Wu, S. (1997). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test. Ohio State University Working Paper.
- Narayan P. K. (2011). Are Shocks to Tourism Transitory at Business Cycle Horizons? Applied Economics, 43: 2071-2077.
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Structure of Tourist Expenditure in Fiji: Evidence from Unit Root Structural Break Tests, Applied Economics, 37: 1157-1161.
- Narayan, P. K. (2008). Examining the Behaviour of Visitor Arrivals to Australia from 28 Different Countries, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 42 (5): 751-761.
- Narayan, P. K. ve Prasad, A. (2008). Examining the Behaviour of Visitor Arrivals to Australia from Twenty Different Countries: An Application Of Panel Unit Root Tests, Economic Papers, 27 (3): 265-271.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics,
- No: 0435.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2006). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Cambridge Working Papers
- in Economics, No: 0346.
- Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 142 (1): 50-93.
- Sivri, U. (2010). Şokların Yabancı Ziyaretçi Sayısı ve Yabancı Ziyaretçi Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi Kalıcı Mıdır? TİSK
- Akademi Dergisi, 5 (10): 220-237.
- Smyth, R., Nielsen, I. ve Mishra, V. (2009). I’ve been to Bali too’ (And I Will Be Going Back): Are Terrorist Shocks To Bali’s Tourist Arrivals Permanent or Transitory?, Applied Economics, 41 (11): 1367-1378.
- WTO (World Tourism Organization) (2011). Tourism Highlights. Spain.
- World Tourism Organization. 2014. Tourism Highlights 2014 Edition, Spain.
- www.kultur.gov.tr/, (Erişim Tarihi: 15 Aralık 2013).
- www.tursab.org.tr, (Erişim Tarihi: 15 Aralık 2013).
- Yılgör, M. (2008). OECD Ülkelerinde İkiz Açık Teorisinin Panel Veri Modelleri İle İncelenmesi (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi), İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ekonometri Anabilim Dalı, Ekonometri Bilim Dalı.
There are 34 citations in total.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | December 28, 2015 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2015 Volume: 26 Issue: 1 |